The hottest demand has not yet started. Can steel

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Demand has not yet started. Can steel prices usher in "red February"

recently, firecrackers broke out one after another in various steel markets in Shanghai. After the long Spring Festival holiday, steel traders opened their doors one after another to welcome the new year, bringing some vitality to the deserted steel market

although some steel mills and some steel traders have recently slightly raised the ex factory price and market quotation of steel in order to usher in a "good start" in the "red February" at the beginning of the year of the dragon, the current "exploratory rise, but not a big rise" atmosphere in the steel market clearly indicates that there is no consensus on the later steel price trend among all links of the market

after the long Spring Festival holiday, the steel traders who left the market in advance due to the lack of demand before the festival continued to return to the market. According to the "practice" over the years, in order to meet the "good start" after the Spring Festival over the years, some steel traders have slightly increased their market quotations. At the same time, the recent ex factory price policy of steel mills also has the trend of "stable increase"

according to the price data of "my steel", from January 29, the end of the Spring Festival holiday, to February 1, the prices of building materials, hot rolling and other varieties in major cities in China remained stable as a whole. Under the influence of the exploratory rise in some markets such as Beijing and Tianjin, the average domestic price of the above varieties must have increased by about 10 yuan/ton driven by technology

the "good start" after the Spring Festival seems to be the "routine" of the steel market over the years. The mentality of pulling up after the Spring Festival is often in line with the mentality of most steel traders. According to the statistics of "my iron and steel", since 2004, the prices of domestic rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling have risen within one week after the Spring Festival in other years, except for the slight decline within one week after the Spring Festival in 2009 (due to the impact of the financial crisis). The increase of the above three varieties ranges from yuan/ton

however, for the "inertia" rise in steel prices after the Spring Festival, some northeast steel traders said frankly that this is only a means for steel traders to meet the "good start" after the Spring Festival holiday, "compared with flame retardant ABS and other materials, it is not driven by the real demand". In his opinion, the procurement demand of downstream construction sites will generally recover after the Lantern Festival on the 15th day of the first month. Therefore, the current steel market is still "with no market and few transactions" and "the orders that bring transactions to traders are at most the orders left over before the Spring Festival"

another steel trader in Shanghai said that the actual transactions of traders in recent years are indeed rare. The Spring Festival holiday has just ended, and the market demand has not yet started. Most of the traders recently focus on cleaning and mutual New Year greetings. However, the industrial chain is generally short

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it is worth mentioning that Hebei Iron and steel, Shagang, Yonggang, Zhongtian and other steel mills recently successively issued the ex factory price policy for steel products in the first ten days of February. According to the data, the above steel mills generally reported flat for rebar, wire rod, spiral and other building materials. In addition, Shagang slightly increased the ex factory price of its hot-rolled products in early February by 40 yuan/ton

in this regard, Mr. guoyongjun of Jincheng Metal Materials Co., Ltd. said bluntly on his blog that "the new price policies of Shagang, Hegang and other mainstream steel mills in February have been issued, and the taste of stable medium-term test rise is obvious". He also said that after long-term adjustment of the market, the repression continues to gather. "Although the market demand has not yet started, the lag effect of spot rising will still occur, and the traditional post holiday bullish reserve behavior will be stimulated." there will be a structural market in the steel market in February, which is expected to rise in February of the year of the dragon. "

it is worth mentioning that, according to the inventory data of "my steel", as of January 29, the total social inventory of the five major steel varieties (rebar, wire rod, hot rolling, cold rolling and medium and heavy plate) in 26 major markets in China was 15.835 million tons, an increase of 1.467 million tons compared with that before the holiday. The inventory increased significantly, which was also the fifth consecutive week of increase. However, the total inventory is far lower than the 1.287 million tons after the Spring Festival last year (February 11, 2011), and has reached a new low in the past five years during the Spring Festival

some analysts believe that the inventory increment after the Spring Festival has hit a new low of the steel inventory increment during the Spring Festival in recent five years, indicating that traders maintained a more cautious view before the festival, and there was no significant hoarding, which will improve the supply-demand relationship in the steel market and have a positive impact on the market

however, there are also views that the market demand after the Spring Festival is worse than that in previous years due to the early end of the Spring Festival this year. In addition, the supply-demand relationship of the whole steel market is still fragile. After the wharfs, ports and transport capacity are restored to normal operation after the festival, it is more likely that the total social inventory of steel will continue to rise. Guoyongjun bluntly said that February may be "a visible rebound and an invisible reversal", which requires careful operation by businesses

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