The hottest rubber spot turns from rising water to

2022-07-31
  • Detail

Rubber spot turned from rising water to flat water

I. overview of natural rubber

1 On August 30, 2012, contract 1301 opened at 21750, with a maximum of 21885 and a minimum of 21425, and closed at 21770. The trading volume was 674842 (-85350), the position was 141260, and the daily position was increased (-2436). Up or down (160), up (0.74%) (at closing price)

2. In terms of positions, 130 adopts two 16 bit counters 1 in the timer. The first 20 most short positions are 31997 (-1160) hands, and the first 20 most short positions are 36503 (308) hands. 87.66% of main multi orders/main empty orders are used in various fields (-3.95%) (the formula for the daily change of the top 20 long positions is that the long positions today minus yesterday, and the short positions are similar. The calculation method and results of the daily change are slightly different from those in the previous period.)

II. Natural rubber spot

1 On August 30, 2012, the oil return buffer valve of natural oil return buffer valve was composed of a unloading switch and an oil return throttle valve. In terms of rubber, East China full rubber reported 21500 to 21600 yuan/ton, Thailand No. 20 standard rubber reported 2700 to 2710 dollars/ton, Malaysia No. 20 standard rubber reported 2670 to 2680 dollars/ton, and Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thailand No. 20 reported 2650 to dollars/ton. Thai cigarette glue is quoted at 2770 to 2800 US dollars/ton

2. In terms of price difference, the total emulsion in East China has changed by (-300) yuan/ton compared with the previous day, the standard glue No. 20 in Thailand has changed by (-10) dollars/ton compared with the previous day, the standard glue No. 20 in Malaysia has changed by (-20) dollars/ton compared with the previous day, the Thai standard glue No. 20 in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has changed by (-40) dollars/ton compared with the previous day, and the cigarette glue in Thailand has changed by (-10) dollars/ton compared with the previous day. The change of price difference shall be subject to the change of low quotation

3. In terms of compound glue, the price of Thai standard glue converted into compound glue is 20039 yuan/ton; The price of Thai cigarette glue converted into cigarette compound glue is 20559 yuan/ton

4. As for the price difference of composite adhesive, the price difference of all latex minus Thai standard composite adhesive is 1461 yuan/ton (a change of -349 yuan compared with the previous day). The price difference of cigarette compound glue minus Thai standard compound glue is 444 yuan/ton (a change of -128 yuan compared with the previous day). The price difference of composite adhesive for all latex smoke reducing sheet is 70 yuan/ton (a change of -200 yuan compared with the previous day)

III. synthetic rubber spot

1 On August 30, 2012, in terms of synthetic rubber, butadiene Shanghua Petrochemical reported 16000 yuan/ton, butadiene rubber Gaoqiao BR9000 Sinopec reported 19500 yuan/ton in East China, and styrene butadiene rubber Qilu 1502 Sinopec reported 18500 yuan/ton in East China

2. In terms of price difference, butadiene has changed by (0) yuan/ton compared with the previous day, CIS polybutadiene rubber has changed by (0) yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and styrene butadiene rubber has changed by (500) yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The change of price difference shall be subject to the change of low quotation

IV. inventory in the previous period and bonded area

1 On August 30, 2012, the natural rubber warehouse receipt of the exchange in the previous period was 14170 tons, a change of (1220) tons compared with the previous day

2. On August 24, the inventory of the previous period was 28975 tons, with a sharp increase of 3239 tons, and the inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. Warehouse receipt 12990 (+580) tons. The large increase in latex inventory in the past two weeks reflects the mentality of all latex spot traders who are bearish on the future market of Shanghai rubber

3. As of August 16, the domestic rubber inventory in Qingdao free trade zone was again high. The natural rubber inventory has increased to 15.6 tons, the synthetic rubber inventory has increased to 4.7 tons, and the composite rubber inventory has stabilized to 37000 tons, a total of 240000 tons. The inventory of Tianjiao plus composite has reached about 193000 tons. At present, there are still about 2 Ten thousand tons of rubber are waiting to be warehoused. Qingdao Free Trade Zone has high inventory, which may usher in an annual inventory peak. In mid June, the sharp decline of rubber traders was caused by the data statistics and analysis. Although it reflects the slow de stocking, it is not a big bad news

v. supply

1 According to the prediction of the information and Statistics Center of the Ministry of agriculture of Vietnam, Vietnam's rubber export will reach 930000 tons in 2012, an increase of 14% over last year. An increase of about 110000 tons. In 2011, Vietnam exported 816000 tons of natural rubber. In 2011, the Philippines produced 425000 tons of natural rubber, 90% of which was exported. According to the data of the Cambodian Ministry of Commerce, in 2011, the national rubber planting area reached 181000 hectares, and the rubber export was 46727 tons. In fiscal year 2010-2011, the rubber planting area in Myanmar exceeded 400000 acres, and the rubber output reached 87000 tons

2. It can be roughly estimated from the above data that the supply of natural rubber in Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia and Myanmar increased by about 140000 tons to 160000 tons in 2012. (a total reduction of 300000 tons at the trilateral meeting) how can Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia ensure that Vietnam, the Philippines, Cambodia and Myanmar do not accelerate their exports? How to ensure that domestic rubber manufacturers and traders export less when Vietnam, the Philippines, Cambodia and Myanmar accelerate their exports? Will rubber suppliers from other countries fight to flee

VI. requirements

1 Sailun shares invested 95million dollars in Vietnam to produce tires. Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber plans to invest 1billion yuan to establish a tire factory with an annual output of 600000 all steel radial truck tires, 1million motorcycle tires and 3million semi steel radial truck tires in Thailand. In August, 2012, Triangle Group Co., Ltd. announced that it planned to invest 250million euros to build a 4million tire factory in Russia. Shandong Linglong plans to invest in the construction of 2million sets of high-performance semi steel radial tires in Thailand; In july2012, Shandong ogirrey Tire Co., Ltd. announced to jointly invest in the Indonesian all steel and semi steel radial tire project with an Indonesian company, with a total investment of USD 200million, and an annual output of 6million high-performance semi steel radial tires and 1.2 million sets of all steel radial tires. There are two driving forces for tire enterprises to build factories overseas: one is to avoid international trade barriers. Second, the economic development in Southeast Asia has led to an increase in tire demand

2. In August, major tire enterprises around the world released their financial reports for the first half of the year

in the first half of 2012, Michelin France had a net sales of 10.706 billion euros (US $13.39 billion), an operating profit of 1.32 billion euros and a net profit of 910million euros, an increase of 37% year-on-year. Operating profit/net sales is 12.3%; Net profit/net sales was 8.5%

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., Ltd. in the second fiscal quarter of 2012, its operating revenue was US $5.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8%; The net profit was US $92million, up from US $47million in the same period of the previous year. Net profit/operating income was 1.77%

in the first half of 2012, Bridgestone Japan's net sales were 1.4889 trillion yen (US $18.9 billion), an increase of 2% over the same period last year; The operating profit was 133.7 billion yen, an increase of 43% over the same period last year; The net profit was 75.2 billion yen, an increase of 39% over the same period last year. 9.0% of operating profit/net sales; Net profit/net sales is 5.0%

in the first half of the year, Sumitomo rubber's operating income was 333.7 billion yen (US $4.25 billion), an increase of 11.4% compared with the same period in 2011 (the same below); The operating profit was 32.2 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 63.1%; The final profit was 16.4 billion yen, an increase of 83.8% year-on-year. 9.6% of operating profit/net sales; Net profit/net sales was 4.9%

in the first half of 2012, the operating revenue of Korean Hantai tire company was 3.55 trillion won (US $3.136 billion), an increase of 17.8% compared with the same period in 2011

the operating income of Guizhou Tire Co., Ltd. in the first half of the year was 3.473 billion yuan (547million US dollars), a slight decrease of 3.24% over the same period of the previous year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 43.4275 million yuan, a slight increase of 5.77% year-on-year; The net profit/operating income is 1.2% (the profit of the head office is not stated, so the estimated value is the profit of the listed company/the operating income of the company)

VII. Macro dynamics

1 On August 30, Dennis Lockhart, an official of the Federal Reserve (FED) and chairman of the Atlanta fed, said that in September, Fed policymakers held a meeting to decide whether to further relax policies, and the camp of support and opposition would be very close

2. French President Francois Hollande on Thursday (August 30) called on the European Central Bank to take action to reduce the borrowing costs of troubled member states in accordance with the agreement reached at the European Union summit in June

note: the reprinted contents are indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with their views or confirm the authenticity of their contents

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI