The hottest rubber survey in Yunnan in April 2018

2022-08-05
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In april2018, Yunnan Rubber Research

this thing like ShaQima made countless futures heroes peak and perish. One of the most violent varieties

through a week's business trip in Yunnan, it is believed that the current overall situation of the natural rubber Market: there are signs of contradictions in the domestic supply, and there are year-on-year glue production reduction and abandonment of cutting, but it is still in the early stage of cutting, which needs further observation; The price of glue is related to the willingness to cut glue: so far this year, 8.5 yuan of glue purchased is the critical price for abandoning cutting The enthusiasm for rubber cutting of RMB 5 has decreased, some of them have abandoned cutting, and the enthusiasm for rubber cutting higher than RMB 11.5 has obviously recovered. Farmers and middlemen have introduced professional management companies, and rubber factories have benefited; In terms of raw material supply: there are differences among glue factories. Large factories have a strong ability to obtain raw materials. Small and medium-sized factories do not have enough raw materials. In terms of raw material varieties, glue supply is currently better than glue blocks (the enthusiasm for storing glue blocks is not high for the time being, or it indicates that they are still not optimistic about the future market); The total latex processing cost determines the size of the fixture structure and the labor intensity of the fixture operation. The total cost is between yuan/ton (of which the direct production cost is yuan/ton); In terms of glue production cost, the cost of a rubber tree (tree) without chemical fertilizer is invested at 6500 yuan. When sufficient chemical fertilizer is used to obtain considerable output, the cost of a tree is invested at yuan. According to the contract standard of 5kg glue per tree set by the state farms this year, the average cost of no chemical fertilizer is 5 5 yuan/kg (trees). If it is considered that 6 bags and 9 bags of chemical fertilizer are used to increase the per unit yield to 6kg per tree, the average cost of glue under the corresponding fertilization conditions is 4 4 yuan/kg

the above glue costs do not include the labor costs of glue farmers at all. Therefore, with the processing costs, the cost of producing futures full latex to Kunming warehouse is RMB yuan/ton. This year, it is planned to build 123 new food safety testing rooms in which the rough delivery costs will reach RMB yuan/ton. Once the price is lower than this area, it means that there will be a comprehensive loss in cash flow and no reproduction, resulting in substantial large-scale tree cutting and a reversal of supply and demand, This will form the bottom of the absolute value of rubber resisting the economic cycle. In terms of the willingness to cut rubber, the glue at the critical point of the willingness to cut rubber at 8.5 yuan corresponds to 10500 yuan/ton of whole milk futures glue. When the price is lower than 10500 yuan, the supply will continue to decrease. After such a low price lasts for a certain period of time, the imbalance between supply and demand will occur. Therefore, yuan/ton has a relative investment safety margin, while yuan/ton of rubber has an absolute investment safety margin. According to the corresponding situation of rubber cutting willingness to rubber output, once the price is at 13500 yuan/ton, the supply of domestic rubber will increase significantly, which will increase the resistance to the market

&em is in the high-end market; And our fixture sp; Views on the market: at present, the global natural rubber inventory is basically concentrated in China, and the peripheral inventory is not large. In terms of origin, there are some positive self-help in foreign countries, including the reduction of export and tree cutting subsidies. There are also alternative planting policies in China, which gradually slow down the export of excess capacity. Natural rubber is still in a long period of de stocking, which is not suitable for long-term trend investment, When the price touches the relative safety margin, a small number of long heads can be deployed for short-term investment. In case of incentive factors such as policy implementation, the long heads should also be released before the full point of 13500 yuan/ton abandonment. The market still needs more supply side policies and demand from the main producing countries to complete the capacity clearing. The bottoming process still has a long way to go. The trip to the main producing countries is very important for the policy side and planting side of Thailand, It is very necessary for the industry to understand its real operation

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